Hearthstone Metagame Analysis: September 2022
09/21/22 0 comments
In this article, Eltinho starts a series of analysis for Hearthstone's Standard format, after patch 24.2.2, which affected relevant cards on the Metagame.Edit Article
objectiveanalysis. In the subjective, you recruit a group of experts to give their opinion on which are the strongest and weakest decks in a Metagame, and you rank them based on those analyses. On the objective side, you gather the raw data thanks to tracker apps and categorize the decks according to their frequency and their winning percentages. Both have their advantages and disadvantages, and a combination of them helps to better understand the format and how to respond to it.
Diamondlevels of the survey. The data indicates 3 metrics: - Frequency (how popular the deck is in Meta); - Power (how effective the deck is in Meta); - Strength. A combinatorial analysis of Frequency and Power, to understand how much a deck influences the format, even without being the most popular or the most efficient — a deck that is both the most common and the strongest would have the perfect score of 100 in this metric).
Class - Archetype - FrequencyTier 1 Relic Demon Hunter - 13.66% Ramp Druid- 10.41% Aggro Druid - 10.38% Tier 2 Imp Warlock - 9.66% Big Beast Hunter - 6.96% Quest Priest - 6.42% Control Shaman - 6.38% Skeleton Mage - 6.09% Tier 3 Big Spell Mage - 3.40% Thief Rogue - 2.81% Naga Priest - 2.30% Aggro Demon Hunter - 2.03% Quest Hunter - 2.01% Tier 4 Edwin Rogue- 1.97% Curse Warlock - 1.90% Enrage Warrior - 1.72% Face Hunter - 1.65% Others - 10.25% As I said above, we have a pretty diverse Metagame, no archetypes above the 15% alert cutoff, and all (except the poor Paladin) classes with reps above 1.5%. If the goal of the last patch was to open the options (basically only 6 classes were present before that), we can say that the result was a success. But what about the deck's win rate, where are we?
Class - Archetype - PowerTier 1 Big Beast Hunter - 56.39% Naga Priest - 54.14% Face Hunter - 53.36% Aggro Druid - 53.12% Imp Warlock - 53.07% Tier 2 Control Shaman - 51.74% Big Spell Mage - 50.66% Tier 3 Relic Demon Hunter - 49.85% Aggro Demon Hunter - 49.21% Skeleton Mage - 48.22% Quest Hunter - 48.18% Enrage Warrior - 48.09% Quest Priest - 48.03% Thief Rogue - 47.74% Edwin Rogue - 47.53% Ramp Druid - 47.43% Tier 4 Curse Warlock - 42.91% Due to the low prevalence of Paladin decks at higher ranks, the class isn't present in the Power metric. Big Beast Hunter and Naga Priest emerge as the two most effective decks in the format, two decks that did well with the nerf in Smothering Starfish, but the overall win rate of the other decks isn't too far off from the rest of the format. Don't be fooled by values below 50% of Winrate because up to a rate of 47%, the ability and knowledge of a player with the deck can compensate for the average performance, so they are viable decks for the format, even if they require a bit more dedication. That is, except for the dreadful Curse Warlock, at this point there is plenty of room for a wide variety of decks to be viable as valid options to climb the ladder of the Standard format competitive ladder.
Strength in the Metagame
Class - Archetype - Meta StrengthTier 1 Big Beast Hunter - 75.5 Aggro Druid - 75.2 Relic Demon Hunter - 74.4 Imp Warlock - 72.4 Tier 2 Control Shaman - 55.2 Ramp Druid - 53.1 Naga Priest - 49.6 Face Hunter - 44.2 Quest Priest - 40.8 Skeleton Mage - 40.4 Big Spell Mage - 40.0 Tier 3 Aggro Demon Hunter - 29.4 Thief Rogue - 26.4 Quest Hunter - 25.2 Enrage Warrior - 23.8 Edwin Rogue - 22.8 Tier 4 Curse Warlock- 4.2 As we can see, we don't have any decks heading towards Strength 100, but rather a large grouping of decks in the 70's, followed by a large block in the 55-40 range. When we have a large dispersion of archetypes in these mid-ranges, we have a symptom that no deck is in a position to overwhelm the others, although the high-power value of the Big Beast Hunter may attract more players to the deck in the coming weeks and the trend is to go up in this index in the next analyzes, which will demand other decks to adapt.